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What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

18 points3 hoursstlouisfed.org
TuringNYC28 minutes ago

I talk to a lot of people in the Metro NY area. One problem here is -- if you need to commute into Manhattan (job center) -- it demands a certain salary, below which commuting in is a net-loss. Rent is $2000/mo. If you have a family and cannot have multiple roommates, you might be looking at $4000/mo.

"if you cannot afford it, stop complainingb and live elsehwere" they say...sure...but a commuter train into Manhattan can run you $30-50/day. Add in parking at the commuter train station and you're down about $60 or more a day.

Now suppose you eke out some net saving -- you've unqualified yourself from medicaid health insurance now. Your net savings may not even pay for your medical deductible.

There are a lot of reasons to just not bother unless the salary can get beyond all these hurdles.

darth_avocado1 hour ago

Im in the prime working age and if I didn’t have responsibilities (mortgage, health insurance, dependents etc.), I’d quit today and not participate for at least a couple of years. Corporate treatment of workers has deteriorated at an unprecedented rate since Covid and based on my anecdotal evidence we probably have a national level burnout and depression epidemic that no one is talking about or looking into. Most people I talk to in my age group are experiencing the same feelings.

lifestyleguru36 minutes ago

Looks like trickling up of the covid money is definitely complete now.

programmertote1 hour ago

> Still, this rate merits carefully watching in coming months; a continued decline may signal a deeper change in the behavior of workers in this critical age group.

I know I'm speaking from a rather (somewhat) privileged position. I myself don't consider working beyond 50 years of age. I have lived frugally/minimally and am confident that (unless WW3 happens or some sort of unexpected global catastrophe arrives) I can FIRE (retire frugally with my savings) before I hit 50.

I also know it's somewhat of a bubble, but Reddit has a lot of subreddits (like r/HENRYfinance/; r/Fire/; and r/coastFIRE/) dedicated for folks retiring early.

Observing that FIRE trend and the fact that AI psychosis (don't get me wrong, I believe AI is useful, but not to a level that humans will be entirely replaced) at work place will surely drive some folks away (or at least discourage them) from staying in the work force, I am not surprised that this trend is showing up in the data. Plus, a lot of millennials are child free (by choice), so they can afford to retire early as well.

glimshe39 minutes ago

I bailed out at 50 while fully employed and making a ton of money in big tech - I was not laid off, I simply let my manager know, found a replacement and walked away. I have kids but I saved enough for healthcare, housing etc. I worked my ass off and lived very frugally to get here. Yes, I would be screwed if WW3 comes along, but who wouldn't? That comfy Big Tech job would vanish pretty quickly too.

I have no desire to keep working for random "Mikes" and "Bobs" in upper management that only care about their bonuses and benefits. Not in Big Tech, not in a random startups, not anywhere else. "Mike wants this", "Bob wants that"... Sweet Jesus, I couldn't care less about their "direction"!

My days are now full of self-imposed challenges and interesting projects. Am I in the labor force? I guess so, but I'm working for me and humanity now.

Time is the most precious asset we all have, folks.

whatever11 hour ago

In south Europe it has been the case for like 20 years. The answer is simple. Businesses don’t pay enough.

People prefer cutting expenses and expectations (nobody in their 30-40s buys a house for example). Businesses cannot find labor or customers. So it is a downward spiral.

Everyone loses.

lifestyleguru47 minutes ago

Depending on EU country employment contract is impossible to get, or while having it you are a workhorse ruthlessly lashed to sponsor and support everyone from "poor underprivileged" to rich unwilling to pay their share, and entire legion of people in-between with more or less social and retirement priviledges. Europe killed employment.

Varelion31 minutes ago

Beyond clear the latter is far more at fault than the former.

micromacrofoot2 hours ago

> More than half of the decline came from a statistical correction to the population level in January and from the steady effects of an aging population, not from workers exiting the labor market. But part of the decline is due to June’s sharp drop in the participation rate among workers ages 25 to 54.

> While dramatic, the June drop brings the participation rate among these prime-age workers back to a level consistent with those of recent years.

nothing to note unless it continues to drop

lazide2 hours ago

Considering the prior years were Covid, and the obvious scale tipping from the gov’t? Yeah right.

the_sleaze_2 hours ago

ai drivel, sadly / humorously

lkbm1 hour ago

Pangram gave 95% human for the chunk (1,547 words) that I gave it. Part of a single paragraph was listed as AI.

throwitaway2222 hours ago

maybe it was that 90% of all hiring in 2020-2024 was foreigners thing?

lkbm1 hour ago

What changed in June?

mikert891 hour ago

Anecdotal evidence, but more than half of my friends that grew up:

1. middle upper class

2. college educated at a top 75 college

3. tall, decent looking

are just not working regular corporate 9 to 5s and get by with consulting, small businesses, living off parents, living off nothing, scammy startups

w2 9-5 is straight up not worth it, even in the 150-300k range

nh23423fefe1 hour ago

how are any of those premises connected to the conclusion?

mikert891 hour ago

people that are able to work "good jobs" are choosing not to