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Proposed NOAA Budget Kills Program Designed to Prevent Satellite Collisions

374 points7 monthsskyandtelescope.org
tomrod7 months ago

I get the desire to reduce government spending. It looks like sticker shock seeing budgets in the billions and trillions.

This type of program has high value per dollar spent. It's an asset, not a waste. The first order, second order, and even third order effects are very large.

Let us get/return to more reasonable principles for doing these budget evaluations and requests.

browningstreet7 months ago

There’s no plausible discussion of reducing spending when the added debt commensurate with that effort is as astronomical as it is.

This is privatization and federal dismantling, and it’s happening so fast and recklessly it will also show up as cultural and civil destruction too. He’s wrecking America so that technocrats can buy it all up.

There’s no intended upside for citizens or for the society they make up. People die and his supporters shrug and defend. It’s Microsoft’s embrace, extend, extinguish as political policy, but reduced by hyperscaling to “eviscerate”.

tomrod7 months ago

Yep.

It is so weird to live in a world where the progressive movement is a better supporter of Chesterton's fence than the allegedly conservative GOP and even the corporate/neoliberal wing of the controlled opposition.

vkou7 months ago

GOP-MAGA isn't conservative, it's reactionary, and the people running the corps will sell their own mothers for a broken penny and a half-percent tax reduction. Don't expect them to jump in and save you.

+1
tomrod7 months ago
browningstreet7 months ago

One reason I’m not especially hopeful is that the resistance is mostly still focused on highlighting the breaches with no actual follow-up. There’s no “Team Resistance”.

The socials are replete with incremental accounting of how each step aligns with Project 2025. No shit. So, many of his voters didn’t read Project 2025, or if they did.. they’re not playing it forward to see what it looks like 10 years in the future.

But what feels true, too, is that the DNC hasn’t read it either. Or if they have, they’re not working against it. I know there are efforts in courts to deny some of these things, and that’s commendable.. but there are no real social or political unities arising to play offense in the next political cycle.

So we have very little defense, and almost no offense. And the referees are bought.

+1
mandmandam7 months ago
overfeed7 months ago

> the DNC hasn’t read it either

Given the choice between losing their big-money donors or losing elections, the current Democratic party probably prefers to lose elections. The gap between party and/or party leadership and its voters has never been wider, no doubt in part due to Citizens United

+1
tomrod7 months ago
+1
vjvjvjvjghv7 months ago
anigbrowl7 months ago

Democrats and progressives believe that factual arguments are what wins elections, so they are tripping over themselves to present the lectorate with proof. this would be a winning strategy if the whole electorate were like Dems and progressives, but it's not.

They need to develop parallel atavistic messaging that bypasses the prefrontal cortex and goes straight for the limbic system, but they're (mostly) terrible at this because they're so conflict averse. Democrats are the party that always wins gold stars at policy debate but can't figure out how to avoid getting shoved in a locker afterward.

madaxe_again7 months ago

You cannot defend against it any more than you can joust with ghosts.

Trump is a symptom, not a cause - the embodiment of the inexorable collective decay of the idea of “America”, set against the slow collapse of a global order built on forgotten consensuses.

Empires and structures inevitably decay and ultimately fail in the same way - reification of that which was once novel, the pollution of minds with layers of abstraction so divorced from any objective reality that they find irreconcilable differences in the symbol maps they use to describe their world.

  Abstract, abstract, abstract,
  my hat is red, 
  your hat is blue
  that is why -
  I hate you.
Like with Newton, any force you exert against an object will be met with an exact opposing force. The net result is just the production of waste energy. The fight becomes the system.

I earnestly think the best thing we can be doing with our time against this backdrop is preserving knowledge and building stable islands of coherency amidst the growing chaos. The dark ages are often blamed on Christianity, but the reality is more that they were a result of the might of Rome - people forgot how to do things, how to exist in a society, as rather than understanding these things themselves, they relied upon the map that was handed to them and took it as reality.

That’s the risk we face now. Not Trump. Not whatever comes next - but the slow, uncomprehending loss of the ability to make sense of the world at all.

bugglebeetle7 months ago

We’re watching the fire sale of America, like was imposed on Russia in the 90s, and resulted in one of the largest declines in life expectancy in the country’s history. I expect the same to happen here, including its eventual culmination in the rise of a Putin-like figure from the security state apparatus, after we similarly suffer a decade or more of internal collapse and humiliation.

TheOtherHobbes7 months ago

I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that the people who promoted neoliberalism in Russia saw how it ended in authoritarian oligarchy- supported by a religious nationalism which displaced science and progressive democratic values - and decided same would be a good outcome for them personally if rolled out across the rest of the West.

This is dense, but stunningly prescient.

https://library.fes.de/libalt/journals/swetsfulltext/1230310...

While things are undoubtedly bad in the US, Trump's grip on everything - including personal health - is far more tenuous than Yeltsin's was. And (ironically) the US has more of a history of violent resistance and agitation for both worker rights and civil rights.

The US has always been a soft economic dictatorship. But a lot of people still expect a functioning social contract, and they're going to become increasingly angry as that disappears.

It's a much more complicated picture than the one in Russia, which has essentially been the same kind of violent autocratic monarchy for centuries, even as the set dressing around it changed.

chairmansteve7 months ago

Your link looks very interesting. Thanks.

+1
lyu072827 months ago
watwut7 months ago

I dont think America will have Putin like figure. It howver may have Trump like figure and Vance like figure.

Security state apparatus in Russia filled different role. These guys are true Putin equivalents.

+2
adgjlsfhk17 months ago
reliabilityguy7 months ago

> We’re watching the fire sale of America,

This is very naive and a typical US-exceptionist take. EU is going through the same thing: the bill for neoliberal policies and globalization came due.

idiotsecant7 months ago

No, it's like if the bill came due and instead we put it on a credit card and also ordered 6 extra porches on our other card.

+1
bugglebeetle7 months ago
tomrod7 months ago

Not really. Just authoritarian scooping up capital, same as always after the end of hegemony. Next come the dark ages. I'm not sure it was ever as deliberate as Trump's losses.

microtonal7 months ago

It seems very similar to how a clique bought up a lot of Russia and became their oligarchs. It's another transfer of wealth to the rich and/or Trump's cronies. The destruction of public goods, research, education, and the climate is extremely sad.

beezlewax7 months ago

It's also hard to fathom. I don't believe these people believe what they're doing is for the greater good or that climate change is a hoax. They have children and want them to grow up to what exactly?

+1
tremon7 months ago
toss17 months ago

They want them to grow up in their privileged bubble, and that is all. They literally DGAF if the rest of of us, i.e., the NPCs, all starve. Does anyone think Russian oligarchs care about the Russian peasants or "meat cans" they send to the Ukranian front? And they've already got their bunkers in New Zealand, Hawaii, or wherever if it all goes really sideways. Musk, Theil, Vance, and the rest of them care about us less than the NPSs in their FPS games, and we should regard them exactly the same way.

idiotsecant7 months ago

It's easy to understand if you imagine that they don't particularly care about other people, their children included.

darkmighty7 months ago

I think Trump is dangerous because he's a particularly explosive combination of Evil and Stupid.

Evil alone (i.e. intelligent evil) isn't as dangerous most of the time, because usually it's manifested as ultra-egotism -- usually if they're smart enough they don't come to government at all. Because, as Trump saw, that's just asking to get shot in the face; although sometimes e.g. in the form of racism taken as a life goal, there's more power-seeking, but then intelligence excludes most stupid forms of racism as simply demonstrably false, and it's very difficult to run on blatantly evil missions like that, post-Hitler.

Stupid alone obviously is useless: they usually don't even achieve power, and if by sheer luck they do, assuming they're not evil, they just fumble around and ask for assistance without too much damage, and might end up resigning or being effectively sidelined.

Now Trump isn't 100% stupid, or 100% evil. He's a very dangerous combination: he probably really doesn't believe in climate change due to very seriously stupid propaganda (in turn produced and stimulated by evil parties) from the far-right/inforwars/whatever, which is pretty stupid. You can even disagree climate change is harmful for yourself (some scientists even did -- at least a few decades ago), but denying it just reflects not having studied the matter at all or listened to anyone that understands a tiny bit of the science. And he is evil in the sense that he might think that, even if this were true, the US stands to profit from oil (again, evil and stupid!). He is evil in his reckless commitment to rile up hate speech, while not seeing the policies he is pursuing are incredibly stupid, and just self-destructive.

The end result is I expect this to be a huge enormous mess for the US, but also for the world. We live in the same planet, and unlike some who like to cheer on their perceived enemies' demise, everyone will be affected if the US (and for example the science they support) destroys so much value. Just like Russia and others, they hold massive nuclear arsenals. I shudder at those who cheer for US's total demise.

The hopeful thing is that insanity inevitably shows how great sanity is. Evil tends to self-destruct. Just do what you can, and brace for impact. Then rebuild from the wreckage. Never lose hope in human potential for good stuff. Good night and good luck.

+1
heavyset_go7 months ago
apwell237 months ago

who exactly are 'trump's cronies' and how are they getting richer? thats what they kept saying about him in 2016. did he ( or his) actually get richer from his time in office ?

+1
idiotsecant7 months ago
+1
blackguardx7 months ago
nwatson7 months ago

Someone will propose privatization of said program with insurance fees covering the reformulated collision-prevention service. Of course, privatization will leave out crucial aspects, lead to failures, increasing untraceable space debris from which nobody will be safe, and eventually bankruptcy of said privatized program, with no way back. As is happening in other parts of government.

JumpCrisscross7 months ago

> Someone will propose privatization of said program

Someone would if given the time and infrastructure. This, on the other hand, is more DOGE-style idiocy.

yapyap7 months ago

Orrrr said privatized thing will start out relatively cheaper than the norm and eventually end up costing way more than what the government was originally spending when it was still part of the government since the private company eventually outpriced everyone with their cheap prices and then when they finally got their monopoly scaled up their prices as much as they feasibly could and then some.

slater7 months ago

Surely you jest! /s

staplers7 months ago

Privatized profits, socialized costs

tetris117 months ago

so, Planetes then

sho_hn7 months ago

I get this reference!

Even as an anime grump, I liked this one.

throwaway67347 months ago

A fantastic show

Rebelgecko7 months ago

The privatization of this data has always been the plan, IIRC that's why the first Trump administration pulled some of these efforts out of the military

jandrewrogers7 months ago

I've worked as a related subject matter expert in a few countries. I can think of a possible reasonable justification for this.

In recent years, the operating environment in orbital space has changed rapidly, and it isn't just the number of objects. These changes are outside the design assumptions of traditional orbital traffic systems, degrading their effectiveness. In response to this reality, governments with significant space assets have been investing in orbital traffic systems that are capable of dealing with the modern environment. However, these rely heavily on classified technology and capability to address the limitations of the older systems.

An argument could be made that it no longer makes sense to fund a public system that is descending into obsolescence due to lack of capability and which can't be meaningfully fixed because that would require exposing classified technical capabilities that no one is willing to expose. In this scenario, the private sector is acting as an offramp from a system that had no future technically.

Space has turned into an interesting place, in the curse sense. It isn't as simple as it used to be.

counters7 months ago

Sure. Great.

But that explanation isn't being offered by the powers-that-be. So there's no point trying to rationalize it post-hoc.

There's no evidence that this is anything more than yet another round of ideologically-fueled maladministration.

jandrewrogers7 months ago

This isn't an explanation that can be offered, at least politically. It invites questions that governments in several developed countries have clearly decided they don't want as part of the public narrative influencing policy. This is the default choice when the real explanation is more complicated, obscure, or technical than will fit in a soundbite, which would be the case in the scenario I hypothesized.

Governments rarely give genuine explanations for their actions and rarely need to. Much easier to use a plausible soundbite related to the current thing. Most people aren't paying attention anyway.

+1
counters7 months ago
notahacker7 months ago

Understand the first part perfectly. Yes, a small portion of newspace involves [or will involve) spacecraft that don't spend most of their life orbiting in nice predictable arcs above ground stations with occasional also predictable small station keeping or conjunction avoidance adjustments, and it stands to reason that the most advanced and classified US SDA capability has access to better sensor data and models.

But that seems like a very poor argument for removing a system which might be approaching obsolescence in military terms but is still relied on for a rapidly increasing number of civil satellites to make rapidly increasing conjunction avoidance manoeuvres (and is also relatively inexpensive). Anything that makes them less aware threatens defence and critical civil government infrastructure too, and the private sector doesn't exactly seem to be embracing it as an exciting opportunity - look at the quote from Slingshot! Plus if anything the changes taking place would seem to be a reason to invest more in orbital traffic control with regulation to make it more like the FAA. You don't have to give away the classified tracking tech if you're barking out move orders rather than simply sharing predictions so operators come to their own conclusions about conjunction risk, and likewise orders and requirements for operators to broadcast position and intent are a much better way of dealing with a future of private servicing missions and space megastructures than "let them buy their own tracking data and make their own decisions"

tomrod7 months ago

I work in a related area too. NOAA and others in the space game are great partners. I don't agree with the fundamentals of your assessment, seems post hoc ergo propter hoc.

JumpCrisscross7 months ago

> get the desire to reduce government spending

It should be incredibly clear that the motivation for these folks isn’t reducing government spending (or cutting waste).

The problem is the programme is at NOAA, and NOAA tells a story about the climate that some folks don’t like. So they trash the messenger and his tools.

conartist67 months ago

But people who send things to space are often liberal. For example they often have attended college and believe in science.

The political intent behind a new dark age makes sense if you think of the goal as being to destroy competent institutions which represent a real threat to an anti-science, post-truth administration

tomrod7 months ago

[flagged]

xpe7 months ago

>> For example they often have attended college and believe in science.

> One doesn't believe in science. One uses science as a tool to test hypotheses, using real world evidence to understand reality and truth.

The first quote is a shorthand. The second quote is accurate, technically, except that perhaps the author is misunderstanding the first quote. When many people write "person P believes in science", you can accurately translate that to "person P sees the value in science as a tool for truth-seeking."

+1
tomrod7 months ago
JumpCrisscross7 months ago

> One uses science as a tool

This requires a base rate of literacy and critical thinking that a lot of Americans, unfortunately, lack.

tomrod7 months ago

Not the majority. A bit less than 20%, the remaining support coming from people who think politics is a tribal engagement like watching a sports team. Or those that listen to bags of hot wind like Yarvin, Rogan, or Thiel.

+2
conartist67 months ago
justinrubek7 months ago

> One doesn't believe in science. One uses science as a tool to rest hypotheses, using real world evidence to understand reality and truth.

Yes, this is precisely that which they do not believe in. Plug your ears, bury your head in the sand, and whatever you do, do not use cause and effect, data, or evidence to backup your claims and positions. That is the platform upon which they stand.

Eextra9537 months ago

I agree with your statement. What I am always trying to understand is where does this lead us and how can we get back to belief in the scientific method? Removing cause/effect/data leaves all decisions to emotion and short term rewards. I don't think this will end well, especially against a background of countries and cultures that do believe in science and collaboration.

TheOtherHobbes7 months ago

It's been systematically undermined for decades through cultivated conspiracy culture, with digressions into wellness woo and evangelical movements of all kinds.

The pitch is the usual anti-intellectual narrative: "How dare these people, with their fancy educations, look down on you and patronise you. Everyone's opinions are equally valuable. They're probably in it for the money."

It's been very organised, and both science and academia have completely failed to respond to it.

You can give science a pass because most scientists struggle to understand how craven politics and propaganda are.

Academia should have known better. Hannah Arendt described it far ahead of time. But somehow plain anti-authoritarianism became less sexy, and certainly less of a career move, than Continental Philosophy and Critical Theory, which have turned out to be largely impotent when faced with full-on fascism.

throwawaybob4207 months ago

[flagged]

epistasis7 months ago

I don't understand the desire to reduce government spending. It's all super high return on investment. Except political pork like price supports for large industrial farmers in the Midwest. ;-)

ModernMech7 months ago

It depends what your investment strategy is. If your goal is to be a rising tide that lifts all boats, then government spending is a good idea. But some people would rather all boats not be lifted. They'd just like to lift some boats, but sink others. Still, other people would prefer to sink as many boats as possible while being in control of the remaining boats that float. For people who fit into those later categories, government spending is not a good ROI.

As Timothy Snyder put it, authoritarian political capital is based on creating a "reservoir of fear" that the authoritarian can draw upon whenever he needs legitimacy or a mandate to enact cruel and inhumane policies. The reservoir of fear is created by making groups desperate, and you don't make them desperate by meeting their needs through funding government assistance programs.

Instead what you do as an authoritarian is you "other" and arrest their neighbors, take away their health care, allow their homes to be flooded, take away their information channels, prevent them from going to school, make sure they're unemployed, make food more scarce... make them desperate enough, blame their desperation on the "others" and they'll be happy to enact whatever cruelties you ask them to on the "others" if they think it'll lessen their misery, or at the very least bring more misery to the "others".

tomrod7 months ago

For certain industries, there are reasonable arguments to be made to keep domestic and support via price controls.

Food at a high level, yes. Pork specifically, no.

(I know you didn't mean literal pork, but thinking through the spectrum here).

tbrownaw7 months ago

Would something like mandating a significant amount of ethanol (from corn) in gasoline be an effective way to so this?

+1
tomrod7 months ago
pstuart7 months ago

It can be, when it's invested in butter rather than guns.

Yes, military investments have paid off in new technologies (e.g., Arpanet) but as a whole only reward the owners of the Military Industrial Complex.

toss17 months ago

Of course, nevermind that we may need to defend ourselves and/or our allies against exoansionist autocratic aggressors like Russia (see Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Baltics and explicit threats against Poland, Germany, England, & US), China (what happens to the tech industry every Taiwan goes up in smoke?), Iran, etc.

Fukyima (sp?) was right about the end of history sort of happening when all countries of the world embrace liberal democracy, but he was very wrong that we are anywhere near that point.

Until then, only strength will deter or oppose the aggressors.

+1
pstuart7 months ago
laverya7 months ago

Yeah except for arpanet, GPS, satellites in general, jet engines, composites, computers, and everything that came from there... What has military r&d ever done for us?

convolvatron7 months ago

this is not at all simple. part of that causality is that fundamental research money was channeled through the military, because that was politically acceptable. is there a particularly good reason why DOE and DOD funding of university research is higher than NSF?

and its pretty easily to cleave off defense spending for basic research performed by universities from the more applied R&D that defense contractors do, much of that from the black budget. this is a place where every visitor leaves shaking their heads at the overt corruption and waste. but its necessary to have such programs in general to support our common goal of self-autonomy as a nation.

so if we're going to serious as a democratic political body about trying to get the most value from our tax money, we can't really can't fixate on reductionist statements that assert that defense or social support money is an unalloyed bad or good. we really need better transparency and to actually dig into the details.

xpe7 months ago

> I don't understand the desire to reduce government spending. It's all super high return on investment.

"Return on investment" (ROI) is only the start of the conversation. ROI is only part of the context. Think of it as a 3-tuple: (ROI, Target, TimeHorizon). One has to define all three for it to be clear. By "Target" I mean the target population and/or impact area. By "TimeHorizon" I mean the period of time over which the ROI is calculated.

This entire comment is intended to be completely non-ideological. Bring your own values and preferred ways of organizing society. (I'm not going to change your deep-seated values, anyway.) But to be intellectually honest, we have to say what we mean.

Even truth-seeking libertarians who prefer market-based approaches understand that many market-based mechanisms are sometimes not well suited for servicing to "hard to reach" customers. Practically, this might mean geographically remote. Generally, it means having a set of characteristics that make them sufficiently out of the parameter space that a market will serve. Some examples include: rural broadband and low-income urban areas that need medical services.

kenjackson7 months ago

This is good. Although I’d make it a 4-tuple to make “target” clear. There are two aspects to target: “where is the impact on the return” and “where is the cost of the investment”.

tetha7 months ago

> This type of program has high value per dollar spent. It's an asset, not a waste. The first order, second order, and even third order effects are very large.

This might also be a program in which the goals of a privatized for-profit company are rather bad in the broader context. If you pay me millions to track and possibly control your satellite in orbit so it doesn't collide... I'll invest in rocket companies to launch more satellites. Even if they are very silly satellites.

After all, if they collide, the debris will most likely miss the shareholders, and then you get more satellites to get contracts for.

And who cares if some of those invaluable scientific systems with year-long plans get knocked out?

LorenPechtel7 months ago

Government is expensive because it does a lot.

There is a lot of trouble with bureaucrats defending fiefdoms that would be better consolidated, but you can't fix that with an axe.

ajmurmann7 months ago

The vast majority of the government budget is entitlements and military. I'm sure there are other things that could be cut and there is always room for more efficiency but it's always gonna be a drop in the bucket compared to entitlements and military.

That said, regulations that make the economy less dynamic and slow stuff down have a high opportunity cost. While it's bureaucrats that write the implementation details and enforce them, it's congress who requires it to happen with AFAIK often little regard to how it would be executed in practice.

AnthonyMouse7 months ago

> The vast majority of the government budget is entitlements and military.

The vast majority of the government budget is "entitlements and military" because donors have their pork classified as those things when they don't want it to be cut. A lot of entitlement programs are structured as handouts to the companies providing those services (e.g. drug and healthcare companies, or landlords) or vote buying of affluent retirees who don't actually need a government subsidy. And I'd like to see someone try to claim with a straight face that there is no waste in the military budget.

But even within those budgets, most of the waste and corruption isn't a single program going to a single place. It's millions of programs that each waste millions of dollars and collectively waste trillions of dollars. And then it doesn't matter if you classify the program as military or entitlements or something else; what matters is if the program is worth the candle.

The problem is that everybody will say that their program is worth it, many them are lying, and it's hard to tell who isn't.

But the thing that's unambiguously true is that the amount of government revenue has been stable as a percentage of GDP for generations and has been growing in terms of real dollars per capita, and yet the amount of government spending has outpaced that by a huge and growing amount.

Is DOGE making a hash of things? Maybe, but then let's do a better job instead of using it as an excuse to keep running reckless deficits until the largest item in the federal budget is interest.

LorenPechtel7 months ago

You start out right then make a totally unsupported leap to concluding that DOGE might help. DOGE most certainly won't help because it's the cutting with an axe I referred to.

DOGE is an artificial stupid looking for keywords. It doesn't understand anything.

pstuart7 months ago

It would help if we had consensus on what Government is.

Many (including myself) believe that Government should be for "the common good", via a legal system, government investments in shared needs/resources, etc.

The current admin believes that Government exists for only two reasons: personal enrichment and punishing perceived enemies. I'd love to be proven wrong but I don't see that happening.

oklder7 months ago

Sticker shock to prior generations who feel fiat economics valuations aren’t just propaganda …this gossip really matters!

Shock to the sort who have seen inflation get to where $600k/yr buying power in 2025 is equivalent to $200k/yr in the 1980s and well beyond the tiny earnings that would have been quite common when Chuck Grassley was a wee lad.

It’s biological ossification. Physics is ageist. We should be reminding the elders rather than enable and ignore their ageism against youth they leverage through politics.

root_axis7 months ago

> I get the desire to reduce government spending

I think we need to stop pretending like anyone cares about reducing government spending, it's a total waste of time and allows the discussion to be misdirected away from the specifics of what the money is actually being spent on.

moralestapia7 months ago

>This type of program has high value per dollar spent.

Care to elaborate?

What's the value that comes back?

Rebelgecko7 months ago

If you save a billion dollar satellite every decade, and it costs $50 million year, you come out ahead. And that's not even counting the negative externalities of unintended conjunctions. Kessler Syndrome is the boggieman of course, but even a few thousand pieces of debris from a single conjunction makes life harder for everyone who operates in space.

andsoitis7 months ago

> If you save a billion dollar satellite every decade, and it costs $50 million year, you come out ahead.

Why should the (US) taxpayer foot the bill rather than the companies who operate and profit from the satellites?

CamperBob27 months ago

Would you argue that every road should be a toll road, too?

adgjlsfhk17 months ago

the government already needs to track satellites to prevent its own from getting hit, and to track foreign spy satellites. IMO it would be reasonably for Congress to pass a law to allow the FAA to charge private companies who launch satellites in the US, but killing the program is just very dumb

moralestapia7 months ago

Has this ever happened?

notahacker7 months ago

Satellites make conjunction avoidance manoeuvres on a regular basis; about 275 Starlink satellites need to move every day. A non-trivial proportion of those would result in a collision otherwise. Satellites orbit at multiple km per second and manoeuvre to adjust orbit much more slowly, so they need advance warning.

Satellite operators obtain much their space situational awareness data directly or indirectly from US govt sources. The fact that collisions are presently infrequent because satellite operators act on that data isn't a particularly good reason to eliminate much of it

+1
cco7 months ago
adgjlsfhk17 months ago

measles was extinct in the US until the antibaxers gained enough momentum

alistairSH7 months ago

It was never about reducing spending. It was always about the grift. See also the BBB - massive benefits to the donor class, and a shit sandwich for the rest of us.

ck27 months ago

It's not about reducing spending (they just added $3+ TRILLION this year out of four)

It's about destroying science, not just current science but the future of science.

By destroying all existing structure so that it will cost trillions to rebuild so impossible anytime soon.

Including academia that seeds the science.

They aren't "conservatives" they are "regressives".

vjvjvjvjghv7 months ago

"They aren't "conservatives" they are "regressives"."

That's how I feel too. "Conservative" should mean "cautious and slow", not "destroy as quickly as possible"

bpodgursky7 months ago

The fundamental problem is that the public

1. Wants to cut the budget so we don't go broke

2. Punishes anyone who talks about unsustainable retirement, disability, and healthcare entitlement programs.

So, they get politicians who try to find a third way, even if it doesn't make a budgetary difference. To get out of this, the public (especially the boomer retiree population) needs to be more mature about the fiscal situation they put the country in and realize they are not living within their means.

watwut7 months ago

Current big beautiful bill will:

- Make debt larger and risk make usa go broke.

- Cut retirement disability, and healthcare entitlement programs.

It will however cut taxes for bilionaires and republicans love it.

eastbound7 months ago

[flagged]

zer00eyz7 months ago

> I get the desire to reduce government spending. It looks like sticker shock seeing budgets in the billions and trillions.

This is an international issue being funded by the US taxpayer regardless of their own utilization of said services.

Programs like these need to exist, but services like starlink should be the ones footing the bill. The military and weather services would need larger budgets to fund their portion of this effort so some of it would come back to "general taxes" but a much smaller amount.

Meanwhile, All those other groups and nations with launch capabilities and a vested intrest in NOT having issues could be contributing too.

> Let us get/return to more reasonable principles for doing these budget evaluations and requests.

These efforts need to be funded with a tax to support them, and not all be drawn from the same general fund. It would make the arguments about "taxes" and "spending" much more reasonable.

ourmandave7 months ago

What about a Universal Service Fund, like the FCC has for telecom?

https://www.fcc.gov/general/universal-service-fund

Star Link and other companies can charge back their customers what they pay into the fund.

Like how AT&T hits me for the Fed USF, the 20 States Fund, and state and local taxes.

https://www.att.com/legal/terms.otherWirelessFeeSchedule.htm...

stego-tech7 months ago

This - among many other reasons - is why I’m increasingly throwing my opinions behind shoving these roles onto the United Nations instead of nation states or private companies. Global needs should have global support, such that the failure of one hegemony doesn’t fuck up everything for the rest of humanity

A UN program for weather forecasting and satellite tracking, complete with open data sources and REST APIs, would be a boon. Unfortunately, the current organizational structure makes that impossible due to the vested interests of the respective Security Council members. We’re more likely to see the EU take up those mantles.

jandrewrogers7 months ago

I worked for the UN on more or less this in the 2000s. People have a naive perception of what the UN is like. It was one of the most openly dysfunctional, corrupt, and sclerotic organizations I have ever worked with or for.

It has nothing to do with who is or isn't on the security council. That entire organization is full of the kinds of people who occupy the average government in the world, which is a very low standard of excellence. The UN has neither data infrastructure nor technical expertise to do something like this in any case.

REST APIs? One of the big issues is that the data sources are measured in exabytes these days. That means there can only practically be a single copy. This creates an insurmountable hurdle: most countries contributing data want to keep their data in their country. This makes any use of that data computationally intractable because there is not enough bandwidth connect the disparate data sources together. Also, given this extreme (and mostly unnecessary) bandwidth consumption, now they have to severely restrict access to the data to keep the system usable, effectively making it no longer public.

I've been to this particular rodeo several times. I have zero confidence it could deliver on the promise.

It really would require someone with a singular vision, the technical expertise, and the courage to pull it off. A committee of bureaucrats isn't going to make it happen.

dgrin917 months ago

Also the practicality of this is that most of the UN funding will come from the US. When a situation like this where US is cutting funding arises you get the same problem. Almost all finding will dry up overnight and they won't have sufficient funding to continue

stego-tech7 months ago

Yep, keenly aware of that, but if we’re building a new future that’s resilient to modern structural collapse and civilizational crises, then part of that is changing the structure of the UN, dues/fees, and its functions. There’s a lot to discuss there once enough folks have accepted the era of US Hegemony is over.

h2zizzle7 months ago

High hopes, those. The point of sabotaging US hegemony was not to hand power over to a monolithic, democratic, primarily Western institution, I'll tell you that much. I suspect that the Galts want their gulches (with Do Not Create Rapture as the template).

bryanrasmussen7 months ago

I sort of wonder when the UN is getting thrown out of New York by the current administration.

chgs7 months ago

I have no doubt China would offer a far better location somewhere like Shanghai. The intelligence benefits of so many foreign diplomats and spies walking your street, drinking in your bars, paying your hookers, is incalculable.

wickedsight7 months ago

Sure. But if US gov is doing it, there's no clear way for other countries to just jump in and foot the bill. If UN is in charge, other countries could just keep paying for it.

Whether that would happen is to be seen, but now it's down right impossible.

AlecSchueler7 months ago

And they can just pull out of it whenever and frame the UN as a boogeyman like with the WHO.

ben_w7 months ago

> Global needs should have global support, such that the failure of one hegemony doesn’t fuck up everything for the rest of humanity

While this is true, I suspect that putting the UN in charge of all global matters will cause them to become such a hegemony.

Until we have multiple planets (or equivalents), I think a multi-polar world with multiple superpowers capable and motivated to work on such things is important.

Hopefully the superpowers will keep their fighting to "indirectly", like the USA and the USSR used to.

AlecSchueler7 months ago

Indirectly is great unless you don't live in the US/SR in which case it's in your backyard. Indirect fighting hasn't been so great for Afghanis.

ben_w7 months ago

My most recent commute took me over the line of the Berlin wall. While what you say is true, a direct conflict between the USA and USSR would have been so much worse for most of the world.

Co-incidentally, home discussion about "The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas" this evening.

+1
AlecSchueler7 months ago
theoreticalmal7 months ago

Were they doing well before?

sdenton47 months ago

Turns out that people bombing your infrastructure and your people actually makes life worse, regardless of your ranking in the world economic stack ranking...

AlecSchueler7 months ago

Is the suggestion that we should fight all our wars in the most impoverished places because it makes the least difference to the people there? I'm not sure what you're trying to imply.

orbisvicis7 months ago

There's TraCSS, SST, RSSS. Each country needs to have their own satellite tracking program. There is international cooperation but do you really think the US is in charge? "Whoops", says the US as a small cubesat from another country collides with a Russian military space satellite. "Missed that one - my bad".

s53007 months ago

[dead]

wnevets7 months ago

Defund ICE and use that money to stop satellites from crashing into each other

apwell237 months ago

Icrease H1B fees to 30k and quota to 3 million and use that money to stop satellites from crashing into each other.

DonHopkins7 months ago

Crash satellites into ICE!

ThinkBeat7 months ago

Clearly this should be funded by the countries and companies that own the debris and sattlites that need to be tracked.

Which means Starling would probably pay for most of it.

Then there are various spy satellites countries have that they dont want tracked? Or does the data from NOAA include spy satellites in strange orbits?

JumpCrisscross7 months ago

> Which means Starling would probably pay for most of it

Then they’d switch to a user fee. Perhaps even at a profit, such that it’s deficit reducing.

That isn’t what they’re doing because that isn’t what this is about.

Buttons8407 months ago

Assuming you mean "Starlink":

Don't all Starlink satellites have a plan to deorbit responsibly; specifically, do nothing, which results in a relatively quick deorbitting?

Starlink satellites are in low-Earth-orbit which can't accumulate much space debris, because everything deorbits naturally within a few years.

EasyMark7 months ago

This isn't about budget, it's about reducing the USA's capability as a leader in science and research as commanded from certain parties in the former soviet union.

cantor_S_drug7 months ago

I mentioned this scenario before but I was downvoted. Can a rogue disgruntled state like Iran actually bring about destruction of satellites, say Starlink ones, to set off space debris chain reaction to pollute, poison the earth orbit for everyone. The thinking goes like if I can't have the advantage then no one else should.

squigz7 months ago

In theory, yes, sure, why not? In practice, I would think that any nation with the capacity of launching such an attack would realize that that would be catastrophic not just for their enemies but for themselves. Not to mention that I'm sure various nations have intelligence about any nations that might consider such an attack and would attempt to thwart it.

j-bos7 months ago

iirc Starlink satellites sit in a low orbit so they'll burn up/down pretty fast.

JackMorgan7 months ago

Not to toot my own horn, but I've been building this free site with space weather and a lot of free data for folks to be able to do their own satellite conjunctions. We've even got a 7 day forecast with covariance so it's even easier.

We want to give out all the data we possibly can for free.

https://spacebook.com/

It's paid for by our enterprise SSA tools, but the spacebook site will always be free and not need a login to get access to the public APIs.

Next month we're rolling out a historical API so you can get the data all the way back to the 1950s and visualize it in the explorer.

sitzkrieg7 months ago

what next, osha? safety sure is a waste of time to these myopic tech idiots

ccorcos7 months ago

Why isn’t the free market capable of doing this? Seems odd to spend money just to spend money. There’s plenty of incentive for other people to be doing this already…

duxup7 months ago

I feel like this is like "free market should build roads thing" we fund roads so everyone has access and goods can move freely / more economic activity can take place without problems.

What would the free market solution be here? Someone builds all the infrastructure to track all the satellites, and maybe more than one (if not you have a monopoly) person does it. Then they charge for it?

But someone doesn't use it an now we have more space junk ...

If anything a government organizing this and everyone utilizing it seems like it makes for more efficient / lower risk situation with satellites. Everyone just gets on with more important business.

OtherShrezzing7 months ago

Usually I’d agree with you on this type of thing, but in this case I think the insurance industry could and should be picking this up.

They’re the bag holder here, and this system could be built for a marginal hit to their bottom line in exchange for a huge amount of de-risking across their entire supply chain.

stego-tech7 months ago

Except they won’t, because current business is about short-term gains at the expense of long-term sustainability. Companies cannot be trusted to act in their own best interests in the long term, and they’ll just as soon exit an unprofitable market today than invest into making it profitable tomorrow.

duxup7 months ago

I don't think the insurance industry is all that interested providing services or enhancing commerce. They'd have some very mixed motivations all at once if they tried doing this. Including anything technical.

ccorcos7 months ago

Side story regarding roads: I was recently in Shelter Cove, CA and was thinking that the is road probably exceeds the entire economic value of the town… Why is this road even here? It turns out, they used to harvest tan oak bark for the tannins to tan leather in the late 1800s which was a huge industry back then. Lots of logging roads out there since then… Free markets do build a lot of roads!

Insurance companies have the right incentive but they don’t need to be the ones building it. Safer cars get cheaper insurance, so there’s clear market pressure there without insurance companies having to build their own cars…

Pollution, kinds that suffer the “tragedy of the common”, are a good example where regulation is necessary to prevent a race to the bottom. But that’s a pretty simple and straightforward thing to democratically vote on without government spending.

I think the solution is fairly simple: private companies build these capabilities and offer them as a service. The idea that there won’t be a marketplace for this service seems misguided too. Adversarial militaries will want their own systems, likely contracted out to private companies, which will likely offer civilian use around the world…

notahacker7 months ago

After launch, most of the stuff up there is self insured.

Also, the US government and it's affiliated institutions already has networks of ground stations and the insurance industry doesnt.

michael19997 months ago

The free market is famously unable to solve problems of diffuse risk and responsibility: air pollution, sea piracy, and in this case -- satellite collision avoidance.

marcusverus7 months ago

This is a good argument for passing a one-page bill which clarifies "if your sat leaves its assigned orbit, you're responsible for the resulting damages". It's a poor argument for spending $50 million dollars per year.

anigbrowl7 months ago

Right, there's no way such simplicity could ever be gamed in the legal system! We could also eliminate crime with a simple law that forbids committing it!

marcusverus7 months ago

This isn't reddit. Please refrain from the rude smart aleck schtick and attempt to articulate an actual argument.[0]

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

michael19997 months ago

Bankrupt companies leave no assets. Same problem as wildcat oil wells.

So now what? Do you try to make every company in the world with a sat to post a damages bond? Held by who? The UN? Adjudicated by which courts? This is naive.

Collective action problems are real, and this is one of them.

+1
ccorcos7 months ago
EasyMark7 months ago

Handing a natural monopoly to corporate America is a very extremely bad idea. Allowing bean counters to control what could eventually disrupt global communications and a huge military advantage is as bad an idea as allowing an unstable billionaire to control a significant portion of your future space program.

mycatisblack7 months ago

It starts looks like a solution in the Fermi Paradox: intelligent species that aren’t intelligent enough will cut themselves of from space travel.

HumblyTossed7 months ago

I really hate the slash and burn style this admin is using to cut everything. It's almost as if there's another agenda.

JSR_FDED7 months ago

Let’s not overthink this. Anything long-term is toast.

more_corn7 months ago

This will go badly. We have probably reached the point where a major collision will cause a cascading effect.

TylerJaacks7 months ago

I would love to hear a reason why this is a good idea?

clircle7 months ago

Space is very big and satellites are very small.

EasyMark7 months ago

These satellites are in a rather thin band of space and it's clearly a problem as debris has already hit the space station and satellites. Tracking satellites is clearly a necessity. Could we use some partners? Probably worth look into with the ESA and Japan/India to share cost, burden, and information. Not doing it because of a trite expression doesn't seem like a good idea.

saagarjha7 months ago

Space is not actually very big when you’re talking about a thin slice above the earth.

squigz7 months ago

Is this a serious comment?

ourmandave7 months ago

Are they hoping satellites studying climate change get destroyed?

Also let's not forget Sharpie Gate and how the petty Orange Emperor appointed a climate science denier to a top position in NOAA.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/12/912301325/longtime-climate-sc...

Yet another systemic rat fucking so somebody can make a buck. It's only ever about the money.

macintux7 months ago

During his first administration I was half-surprised he didn’t nominate a flat earther to head NASA.

water97 months ago

only works if everybody agrees and Noaa is not in charge of everybody

djoldman7 months ago

Here's the uncomfortable fact:

If the US Federal Government spent ZERO money on anything except:

1. Social Security

2. Medicare & Medicaid

3. National Defense

4. Net Interest on the Public Debt

5. Income Security

6. Veterans Benefits & Services

7. Federal Civilian & Military Retirement and Disability

... the US would still have a sizable deficit.

All the hoopla surrounding science spending, education, DEI, FDA, housing, foreign aid, disaster relief, etc., doesn't really address some huge issues if the goal is to reduce deficit spending.

declan_roberts7 months ago

Debt servicing is now more than 16% of our spending and growing.

I hope all that stuff we bought with $36T was worth it!

JumpCrisscross7 months ago

> hope all that stuff we bought with $36T was worth it

No need for past tense. We’re currently in the most intense—the biggest, most beautiful, one might say—phase of deficit accumulation in American history.

declan_roberts7 months ago

Thankfully we're getting all this cool stuff. You know like... actually what are we getting?

tomrod7 months ago

More debt!

cco7 months ago

A sizeable chunk, probably around half, of what we bought with that $36T was net worth for people like Bezos and the Kochs.

JumpCrisscross7 months ago

> if the goal is to reduce deficit spending

Red herring. It’s not. It’s never been. We’re blowing out the deficit by trillions.

The motivation isn’t anything about the deficit. It’s that NOAA counters the climate narrative a narrow band of idiots would prefer to believe.

watwut7 months ago

They are making the deficit much larger. So, can we stop parroting these bad faith "debt worry" arguments?

vjvjvjvjghv7 months ago

They will worry about the deficits again once democrats are in power.

Ylpertnodi7 months ago

Cool and normal.

hdb3857 months ago

bothered

ben_w7 months ago

I mean, that's one way for Trump to punish Musk…

bedhead7 months ago

[flagged]

throw0101a7 months ago

> I see these headlines a lot. Honest question: do we know if these programs actually do anything?

The Pentagon themselves seem to think so, "Space Force officials and more than 450 aerospace companies are against the White House's proposal":

> Space Force officials are eager to exit the business of warning third-party satellite operators, including rivals such as Russia and China, of possible collisions in orbit. The military would prefer to focus on managing ever-growing threats from satellites, an intensive effort that requires continual monitoring as other nations' increasingly sophisticated spacecraft maneuver from one orbit to another.

> But until someone else is ready to take over, the Space Force will remain saddled with the responsibility of issuing these alerts. The Space Force calls these alerts conjunction assessments, and there are national security reasons for sharing the warnings far and wide, because a traffic accident in orbit would endanger the Space Force's own satellites.

* https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/07/nearly-everyone-oppose...

yupitsme1237 months ago

[flagged]

jpalawaga7 months ago

You mean one group that is ignorant costcutters and another group that are subject matter experts? Hmm who to listen to.

yupitsme1237 months ago

Nope, just two ignorant groups who have hijacked the entire country.

bix67 months ago

[flagged]

haiku20777 months ago

> I asked Chat what it thinks private systems would cost and it suggests around half+.

I am genuinely unsure why someone would think an LLM could accurately estimate that kind of cost and would like to know your reasoning.

avs7337 months ago

I like when I see people cite LLMs as a source because it’s an easy heuristic to just dismiss them.

ben_w7 months ago

Likewise, and that's despite me finding LLMs impressive.

I only trust LLMs for a first draft, where I can actually fact-check everything, or light copy-editing for tone and style.

I wouldn't expect a fresh graduate to be dotting all the i's and crossing all the t's on their research; and as LLMs are like a fresh graduate at coding, I assume they're like that at everything else, too.

Useful, sure, but not what I'd call a "high quality source".

bix67 months ago

Why? Do you dismiss people who use Google? Or Wikipedia? Or Britannica? They are all just different sources of info with strengths and weaknesses.

epistasis7 months ago

LLMs lie far far more often. It would take a year+ of good experiences for me to start reconsidering my bad experiences with any technical topic outside of programming.

I similarly dismiss people's opinions that rely on LLMs to inform them on important subjects, rather than using them as a search engine to find more reliable sources.

You can't trust a person that educated themselves with an LLM, because they have filled their head with bad foundations. That's very difficult to correct later on.

+1
haiku20777 months ago
avs7337 months ago

Not really? If one seeks to gain basic information these are reasonable sources but they are not authoritative, nor are they deep enough to generate deep and rich understanding of most phenomenon.

I was taught since at least high school that you don’t cite encyclopedias as sources because they are not sources - they are summaries of sources.

LLMs are similar but worse. They are a statistical approximation of truth, without a concept of truth. They are fuzzing sources that you and I have access to already. I find calling that hand off of agency and responsibility “being informed” deeply disturbing.

jjtheblunt7 months ago

my guess is people lend 'Chat' credibility since it's definitely read more of the internet than any one person.

of course (to your point) that credibility overlooks possibilities for algorithmic bugs

bix67 months ago

Yeah the whole point is it’s a quick way to synthesize a lot. It’s not foolproof but neither is anything else on the internet.

ben_w7 months ago

I've set some of these models to work synthesising summaries etc. based on my own blog posts; LLMs are surprisingly middling at synthesising info from documents — I've seen even good models elide significant content, go on distracted rambles about other topics in the same area, and even invert the meanings of points being made.

Use them the way you'd have used Wikipedia in 2008: a starting point from which you can do actual research, but you have to watch out for a lot of unverified junk as well.

bix67 months ago

[flagged]

fnord777 months ago

> The math for privatization does not make sense to me

When everything is considered, privatization rarely makes sense.

mschuster917 months ago

> The math for privatization does not make sense to me?

It does when you assume that some rich person will end up taking that over and the government(s of the world) paying for it.

Always, especially with this admin, assume grift of one or another kind behind anything.

maxlin7 months ago

If they just figured out a way to not 10x overspend while getting the same results ...

OrvalWintermute7 months ago

Part of the problem is you need to track all orbits for all constellations and free flyers as well as all orbital debris, and communicate across many communities of interest.

It is more national security & military adjacent

I’d stand up a joint agency for this requirement across DOD, NASA, NOAA, FAA, and Commercial Space/Newspace.

nsriv7 months ago

Trying to save on a $55 million program by standing up a joint agency. I have truly heard it all now.

OrvalWintermute7 months ago

Doesn’t mean it needs much staff if leveraging pre-existing capabilities

Could def be done for cheaper than 55M

wongarsu7 months ago

The US are by far not the only ones with satellites in orbit. Making it a UN body would make sense, just like the International Telecommunications Union coordinates telephone service and the International Postal Union coordinates international mail, and both are now UN bodies (despite predating the UN).

I have a feeling that the current US administration would not back such an idea, so this will end up back with the DOD, maybe the Space Force. Despite the DOD saying quite clearly they would prefer NOAA to do it

jowea7 months ago

It seems this is already a thing on some form https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/spaceobjectregister/index.htm...

cowsandmilk7 months ago

Having a joint program across all those would cost far more money.

vjvjvjvjghv7 months ago

The project managers and consultants to plan such a thing would probably cost several years of the current budget.

OrvalWintermute7 months ago

Not if staffed with a tiny office and reuse of capabilities from each. Potentially very small, platoon sized or smaller

10M annual spend, rest allocated to spend for services